Understandably, the first question that many patients ask after a cancer diagnosis is ‘what is the prognosis?’.
This can be a difficult question for doctors to answer. No statistics will tell you what will happen in your case. They can only give you an idea of what happens in general.
What outcome depends on
How well someone does after a cancer diagnosis depends on a number of different things – which is why you can’t assume that statistics apply to you as an individual. It will depend on:
- how early the cancer is diagnosed, how big it is and where it’s growing
- the treatment you have, for example whether the cancer can be removed
- your age and general health and fitness, as this affects the treatment you have and how well you cope with it
What you need to know about statistics
Statistics are put together looking at large groups of people and recording how they do. For rarer cancers, the stats are based on smaller numbers, simply because fewer people have the condition. Because they’re based on smaller numbers, they may not be as accurate. So it’s fine to look for outcome stats, but do remember that they are only ever a guide.
Below there are statistics on survival after a diagnosis of bile duct cancer. Think carefully about whether you want to know this before reading further. Sometimes, people look for statistics for reassurance and then could be upset because the figures aren’t as good as some more common cancers you hear about.
Of course, some people do very well after treatment for bile duct cancer. The way cancers behave and respond to treatment varies a great deal between people. So even if the figures aren’t what you’d hoped for, they are only an average and you may do a lot better. Generally speaking though, bile duct cancer that is diagnosed at an advanced stage is less likely to be controlled for long periods.
Finally, remember that survival statistics are always looking back at what happened in the past. Treatment for cancer is improving all the time, so patients diagnosed now may do better than patients diagnosed some years ago.
Survival by stage
As bile duct cancer is so rare, we don’t have survival stats by cancer stage [LINK staging page] in the UK. The most important thing is whether you can have an operation to completely remove the cancer and try to cure it. With this type of treatment, around 4 out of 10 people (40%) live for at least 5 years afterwards (REF).
The following figures are from the USA, which has a much larger population to draw figures from. But it doesn’t show you who had surgery to try and cure their cancer and who didn’t.
The statistics are separated into intrahepatic bile duct cancer [LINK what is#types] and extrahepatic bile duct cancer [LINK what is#types]. Hilar (or perihilar) bile duct cancer is included in the extrahepatic figures.
These figures are based on people diagnosed between 2011 and 2017. Rather than numbered stages, they are grouped as local, regional or distant:
- local means the cancer is still within the bile duct – usually includes stage 1
- regional means the cancer has grown into surrounding tissues or spread to lymph nodes -usually stages 2 or 3
- distant means the cancer has spread to another part of the body – stage 4
Because staging is very complicated, and varies between types of bile duct cancer, it’s a good idea to check with your hospital doctor or specialist nurse about which group you’re in.
The figures below are relative survival figures. That means they compare what happens to people with bile duct cancer to people of the same age in the general population.
Intrahepatic outcomes by stage:
- Local – around 1 in 4 people (24%) lived for at least 5 years after their diagnosis.
- Regional – around 1 in 10 people (9%) lived for at least 5 years after their diagnosis.
- Distant – around 1 in 50 people (2%) lived for at least 5 years after their diagnosis.
Extrahepatic outcomes by stage:
- Local – around 1 in 6 people (17%) lived for at least 5 years after their diagnosis.
- Regional – around 1 in 6 people (16%) lived for at least 5 years after their diagnosis.
- Distant – around 1 in 50 people (2%) lived for at least 5 years after their diagnosis.
Overall statistics for bile duct cancer
There are UK figures that group together all types and stages of bile duct cancer. These are slightly older than the figures above. Outcomes for people diagnosed more recently are likely to be better.
One year survival:
These figures are for people diagnosed between 2005 and 2009.
- In men, more than half (57%) lived for at least one year after their diagnosis.
- In women, around half (49%) lived for at least one year after their diagnosis.
These are relative survival figures. That means they compare what happens to people with bile duct cancer to people of the same age in the general population.
The best way to make sense of the figures and how they relate to you is to talk to your own specialist.
Content last reviewed: October 2022
Next review date: October 2025